The rest of the group stage
Group G may be the most lopsided group in the tournament, with Belgium looking down on Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand. Belgium is a very good football team, staying undefeated since March of 2025, with a recent North American road trip resulting in a rout over the USMNT and a tie against Mexico. That only makes it even crazier that they will be getting healthy just before the tournament begins. Both Amadou Onana and Zeno Debast are slated to be back in shape at the end of May. Jeremy Doku will have nearly a month of rest going into the tournament, possibly with a new piece of hardware on his mantle. This is a very scary team and easily takes the group.
But who wants second place? Egypt has five to one odds to win, and Iran has six to one odds for it. Iran is clearly the best team in the Middle East, but often that feels like being the fast first grader in your class. Egypt took home a disappointing fourth place in the Africa Cup of Nations, losing on penalties to Nigeria in the bronze match.
In the end, the team with players who have experience in European football is going to be the safe bet, so give me Egypt to take second place and Iran a disappointing third place.
Spain wins Group H, and if that does not require much more discussion. Lamine Yamal alone should begin and end the conversation. A Ballon D'or level season with a Barcelona team (a large number of whom play for Spain) who looked unstoppable for a large part of the season, the eighteen-year-old's only flaw is his lack of experience. But after following a few rounds short of lifting the coveted European Cup, his sights will be set on higher glory, the most coveted trophy in all of sports, the World Cup.
Uruguay comes up as the best of the rest here, Federico Valverde and Manuel Ugarte making them a sneaky threat to whatever team pulls up across from them in the knockout stages. Saudi Arabia, the second fastest first grader in the Middle East, falls to third, with very little shot at seeing knockout stage football.
Speaking of front runners to win the whole show, France wins Group I. Is Mbappe playing some questionable football for his club right now? Yes. Does that make him any less lethal when playing with his countrymen? Absolutely not. Mbappe, Dembele, Olise, Doue, if you blink, France has already scored twice and starting to envision another shot at glory. After lifting the trophy eight years ago, last year's loss to Argentina left some anger in this squad that the rest of the field is likely going to have to pay for.
The difference between this group and the last one is there is still a ton to talk about with the rest of the group. Norway makes their first World Cup appearance since 1998, two years before super star and Ballon D'or hopeful Erling Haaland was born. His existence has not only put Manchester City points away from a Premier League celebration, but has brough Norway back into football relevance. Norway won all but one game they played in 2025, typically in emphatic fashion. Haaland is not alone on the front line, with Jorgen Strand Larsen having contributions as well. This is an offensive threat, and opposing goalkeepers are already losing sleep imagining it.
Somehow, we are not done talking about this group, with Senegal sitting in the group as well. The fourteenth ranked, second place in the Africa Cup of Nations, extremely stacked roster of Senegal comes in to make it hard for the Europeans. This squad has played 27 matches together in the last twelve months, giving them a level of chemistry that will be extremely dangerous.
The second place in this group probably comes down to goals scored, and Erling Haaland makes it impossible to pick against Norway. Senegal will be a dominant third place team in the knockouts that can not be overlooked and could pop any powerhouse in the mouth if they are not careful. Iraq is also in this group, the third fastest third grader we have discussed in the last few paragraphs.
We return to our regularly scheduled tournament front runner conversation with Group J, where Argentina preps for their own version of the last dance. The 2022 World Cup was "likely Messi's last" and then the Copa America was "Probably Messi's last tournament" and now we are preparing for another tournament where Messi will torture us all by continuing to be one of the greatest players in the world at the age of 38. I groan and ache getting out of bed in the morning, but Messi is a Golden Boot contender with an additional decade under his belt. Julian Alvarez and Nico Paz will be back in shape for the tournament; Messi is limiting minutes at Inter Miami in preparation. Not much debate here, they win the group.
Austria, Algeria, and Jordan make up the rest of the group, and this is another battle for second place. Austria looks like they have an impressive win loss record from the last year going right now, until you take a second to zoom in and learn a lot of new names and see a ton of players from clubs local to their countries. Algeria made the quarterfinals in the Africa Cup of Nations and have only lost two games since the beginning of 2025.
The odds lean heavily towards Austria to take second (four to one), but the chemistry that Algeria was able to build with a heavy 2025 campaign together is a huge factor in the decision to have them win second place. Either way, this is a second-place team that will not be long for the knock out stages.
It has been three paragraphs since we mentioned another title contender, so in comes Portugal and group K. After being absolutely embarrassed in 2022, Christiano Ronaldo absolutely needs to have a great tournament, lest he gets lapped by Messi in the GOAT debate. Thankfully, he has a very stacked roster around him to make that run possible. The Paris Saint-Germaine duo of Vitinha and Joao Neves look to continue to play world class defense for country. Pedro Neto and Rafael Leao will help apply presure to opposing boxes, creating opportunities for Ronaldo to score.
But notice that I have not yet declare them the winner, because there is a legitimate lunatic in their group that threatens that spot. Colombia is the most consistently inconsistent team in international soccer and it could create a problem in the group stage. Runners up in the Copa America, Colombia sent a loud message to North America about their presence on the international stage. Since then, they have won seven games, lost six, and drawn five times. Luis Diaz is playing some of the best football of his career for Bayern Munich, but it has not quite translated on the international stage.
Colombia's real weight is in their defense, which every one of their players sell out for. Richard Rios, Daniel Munoz, Jhon Lucumi, and Davinson Sanchez play physical, exhausting levels of defense that make life miserable for opposing strikers. If you want to score in the box, you better be ready to take the shot with a Colombian player either attached to your hip or ready to deliver the type of tackle that could potentially get them carded.
Ronaldo is not going to prosper against that type of defense. Can the rest of the offense be enough to put a shot inbetween the post and stay ahead?
In the end, I have Portugal winning the group, but on goals scored, not on straight points. Colombia takes home second place, and becomes a worrying defense in the knockout stages. DR Congo, the team that kept Nigeria out of the World Cup, takes third.
We have one more group to go, and with it, one more title contender. England demands attention this year, and their campaign to the top starts in Group K. Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer, Bukayo Saka, and the Ballon d'Or front runner Harry Kane know the pressure to score goals has never been higher. Declan Rice, Marc Guehi, Adam Wharton, and Kobbie Mainoo will be defending the box with their life. If there has ever been a time to bring it home, it is now. No one in the group of Croatia, Ghana, and Panama is gonna stop that.
For second place, Croatia is a clear favorite. They did not lose a match in 2025, and only dropped one match to Brazil in March of this year. They are not the most stacked roster in the tournament, but they play together often and will keep several offenses scoreless.
Third place teams advancing: Paraguay, Sweden, Scotland, Austria, Bosnia, Czech, Iran, and Senegal.
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