3 reasons why Folarin Balogun must start at the World Cup (even with Haji Wright's form)
A successful striker is an elite finisher, moves intelligently, and scores because of a ruthless, confident mindset. That is the perfect description for Folarin Balogun.
Here are three reasons why, even with Haji Wright's hot form, Folarin Balogun simply has to start for the USMNT.
Balogun is so hot right now
Balogun is on a hot streak for his club AS Monaco in France’s Ligue 1, the top tier of French Football. He has scored in eight consecutive matches, matching a run achieved by Kylian Mbappé in Europe’s top leagues this season. (The all-time record is 11 matches held by Sonny Anderson in 2001 for Lyon.) To be compared to the peerless Mbappé is one thing, but to be in a position to surpass him is another. Yet Balogun has the chance Saturday against Toulouse.
The streak began on Feb. 21 against Lens where Monaco was down by two goals, but Balogun started the comeback that eventually resulted in a 3-2 win with a ruthless strike with two defenders hanging all over him beating the keeper bottom right. He then scored against Angers, PSG, Brest, and Lyon.
During the ensuing international break, he was scoreless against Belgium and Portugal for the USMNT. Back in league action, Balogun continued his streak with goals against Marseille, Paris FC, and Auxerre. Boom! Eight goals in eight league games.
Balogun first among equals
With less than eight weeks until the first game, the striker pool has become shallower with Patrick Agyemang, who scored 10 goals for Derby this year, ruled out of the World Cup with a torn Achilles tendon.
The pool is now Balogun, Haji Wright of EFL Championship champions Coventry, Ricardo Pepi of Dutch Champions PSV, and Josh Sargent of Toronto FC, with 19-year-old Zavier Gozo of Real Salt Lake as honorable mention. If USMNT head coach Mauricio Pochettino chooses to bring just three, and a need arises for others to play up front, midfielders Christian Pulisic, Brenden Aaronson, and Weston McKennie can do the job.
The reasons for Balogun to get the nod to lead the line is that he has played in 36 of Monaco’s 40 matches, which includes all cup competitions; scored 17 goals in those games; and has an excellent xG of 13.09.
xG is a football metric that assigns a probability to each shot resulting in a goal. Ligue 1 striker xG is between 12-14.
Wright’s xG is an astounding 18.11 (!), competition-level caveats apply and he has also scored 17 goals but in 38 games. He has been instrumental in Coventry's promotion campaign and is just as dangerous as Balogun. But when considering the choice between the two, Balogun gets the nod because Wright’s competition-level caveats have to be applied.
Rotation is the way to go
The striker decision for Pochettino is not straightforward. Based on style, Balogun and Wright are “poachers” or strikers who stay high up the pitch looking to exploit space between defenders and convert opportunities. But if looked at from a rotational perspective, starting Balogun, then bringing on Wright would be like getting punched by Mike Tyson for 70 minutes, then by George Foreman for 20 more.
The scenario would be Balogun running at defenders and chasing long balls, all while pushing and shoving them. Then Wright comes in and does the same thing, but with a better aerial game (he’s 6’ 3” compared to the 5’ 10” Balogun), which comes in handy towards the end of the game when there are generally more dead-ball situations.
The rotation will benefit both players during the group play, where there are 13 days to play all three games. Strikers are expected to run their socks off, not just by chasing every ball, but by leading the press or hounding the keeper and defenders. So not having to play the full 90 minutes is a tactical advantage.
In the end, strikers eat only with good service. If Balogun or Wright are isolated, they’ll be trying to make a Michelin Star meal with crumbs. But if their midfield and wingers cook, the two can net a feast for all.