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Mock World Cup bracket: Just how far can the USMNT go?

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FBL-WC-2026-US-SQUAD | TIMOTHY A. CLARY/GettyImages
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The round of 16

Team 1

Team 2

France

Germany

South Korea

Morocco

Mexico

England

Brazil

Norway

Spain

Colombia

USA

Belgium

Argentina

Egypt

Switzerland

Portugal

The round of 16 is where the contenders finally start to seperate themselves from pretenders. That is not to say that those eliminate in this round should be ashamed of themselves, because the eight teams coming out of this round are amongst the best of the best and are squads made up of the best players in the world.

That being said, either France or Germany has to go home in the first game of my round of 16. Both of these teams are title contenders, and if the pathways were set up just a little different, this could easily have been the final. This will be a high scoring, emotional match that soccer fans around the world will be watching on the end of seats, including the fans in attendance, which seems like a waste, given the tens of thousands of dollars these seats will cost.

Player for player, man for man, France has the better roster here, and not by a thin margin. I mean, it is not a bad rule of thumb to assume that if you see a French national team player on a club's starting eleven, then they are probably the front runners for their league (Ironically not a single player on Arsenal). Offensively unstoppable, endless chemistry, there is a reason this team won the 2018 World Cup and were an inch away from winning the 2022 World Cup.

Mbappe always has an extra gear when player for his country, Olise has looked unstoppable during Bayern Munich's campaign this year. Dembele is the defending Ballon D'or receipient and will be leading Paris Saint-Germaine into the Champion's League finals just weeks before the opening kickoff.

Even if the comparision seems steep, Germany is no slouch on the world stage. They have an elite defensive unit They made short work of their opponents in their World Cup qualifying goals and scored sixteen goals in the process.

However, this matchup is still one sided. France mirrors the result from June and puts away the Germans 2-0.

The next matchup is just as lopsided, but maybe not as exciting when South Korea and Morocco line up in Houston. A two seed who is over achieving by a mile and a two seed who would be a one seed in any other group, angrily punching everyone in their way. Morocco is going to score goals, and probably quiet a few of them in this matchup. The South Korean's goal should just be keeping this from being a rout.

Morocco wins definitively with a 3-0 victory.

Somehow the round of sixteen has been more lopsided than the first round of knockouts as we get to Brazil against Norway. This Brazilian team is offensively as powerful as any world cup team in the tournament, if not in the tournament's history. Norway is hopeful that Haaland can carry them this far. Brazil will score at will, and Norway will be lucky to score once in the process.

Brazil wins 4-1 and has not even broken a sweat yet.

We finally have a competitive game when England has to play Mexico in Mexico City. Is England the better team in almost every facet of the game? Yes. Is this an undervalued Mexican team in their home country in the mecca of Mexican soccer? Also yes. Are those things as important when picking a winner? Not quite.

This English team is extremely talented. There is not a hole on their roster, and the strengths on their roster are as strong as ever. Harry Kane is the Ballon D'or front runner, with Declan Rice not very far behind him. Bellingham was a bright spot for a very disappointing Real Madrid team this season. Bukayo Saka is an outside contender for the Ballon D'or himself and has earned the massive contract Arsenal gave him this winter.

Is Mexico hopeless? No, you can never count a host nation over. But England is not a team that can be defeated by hope and friendship. They send Mexico home on a 3-1 final.

We continue the trend of lopsided matchups as Spain matches up with Colombia. Spain is just too talented for this to be anything besides lopsided. Colombia is punching above their weight class thus far in the tournament, but midnight has to strike at some point and the Cinderella story ends here. Spain continues their path to the final with a 3-0 victory.

Am I allowed to say lopsided games continue with this next matchup? Is that allowed? Please send all complaints to whoever has prevented the United States from developing a youth soccer program worth anything.

Our next matchup is the USMNT hosting Belgium in Seattle. Where I thought that friendship and good vibes were a factor in the Mexico and England matchup, I do not think that those same virtues are going to be present for the USMNT here. There are expectations for this team, everyone knows that, and there will be pressure to perform. Pressure from fans, from executives, from players, from coaches, and especially from those in attendance. That pressure is going to cause things to boil up when the Stars and Stripes see the Belgium team that kicked the snot out of them just a few months prior.

A deep breakdown of this game is not necessary, you saw this game in late March. Belgium has chemistry and great offensive passing creates shots. The United States is scared of the opposing penalty box and struggles to put together scoring opportunities. Belgium defends well on both the wing and inside the box. The United States players start seeing ghosts when an offensive player runs in their direction.

This is not going to be a rout like it was in March, but the USMNT is a long shot to win this matchup. For that reason, Belgium tops the US 2-1, ending the host nation's dream and beginning the USMNT's rebuild.

I have asked the soccer gods if I could analyze a close matchup in this round and they simply responded, "No"

Argentina is going to embarrass Egypt and send Salah into his summer of job searching. Egypt can keep their head high knowing that they overpowerfromed by a huge amount. But there are pretenders, and there are contenders, and Argentina is a contender. Egypt goes home after a 3-0 loss to Messi and the boys.

Finally, we have one more game, and would you believe it, it is another lopsided matchup. Switzerland comes to Vancouver to try and send Ronaldo home from his last World Cup. However, Portugal is a powerhouse here, and Switzerland does not stand a chance. Portugal has better players in better positions and has a better win condition. Switzerland's greatest option is praying, and their second best option is an insane amount of luck. Portugal keeps Ronaldo's hopes of holding the World Cup trophy alive for another round with a 2-1 victory.

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