The World Cup countdown is well and truly on for USMNT supporters. There is now only a week to go until Mauricio Pochettino names his final 26-man roster, with some questions still to be answered, while the USA's tournament opener at SoFi Stadium is now only three and a half weeks away.
The United States' form coming into this tournament is, at best, mixed. Back in March, they were beaten in two high-profile friendlies at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, annihilated 5-2 by Belgium before being easily swatted aside 2-0 by Portugal three days later. However, the Stars and Stripes did conclude 2025 unbeaten in five, winning four of them, most-notably demolishing an under strength and uninterested Uruguay 5-1 in Tampa.
Currently 16th in the latest FIFA World Rankings, the U.S. are aiming to reach a first World Cup quarter-final since 2002, having exited in the round of 16 against the Netherlands in Qatar. First and foremost, Pochettino's team need to negotiate the group stages, benefiting from being in Pot 1 when the draw took place at the Kennedy Center last December, a privilege afforded to all three co-hosts.
Nevertheless, there are still some difficult opponents ahead, as there should be, this is the World Cup after all, so here we rank them from potentially kindest to trickiest. Handily for Pochettino, by pure coincidence, all three are sides the U.S. have faced in friendlies in the last 12 months.
3) Australia - The most favourable matchup for the USMNT
As well as two fixtures in Inglewood, California, the USA's second match will see them venture north up the Pacific coast to Seattle for, on paper, their most winnable group stage game. Last October, the United States fought back from a goal down to beat Australia 2-1 in Denver, courtesy of Haji Wright's brace at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.
So, just how strong are the Socceroos? Well, they have now qualified for a sixth successive World Cup, booking their spot last June by virtue of back-to-back crucial wins, beating Japan in Perth and then Saudi Arabia in Jeddah five days later. Four years ago, Australia reached the World Cup knockout stages for just the second time, enjoying famous victories over Tunisia and Denmark, before exiting at the hands of eventual winners Argentina in Al-Rayyan.
Put succinctly, Tony Popović's team will be difficult to beat, but simply lack top-end talent. Martin Boyle and Awer Mabil were the only players in the March squad who have reached double figures in terms of international goals, albeit Aussies are really excited about 20 year old Nestory Irankunda, who bagged a brace against Curaçao in Melbourne during the most recent international break.
Across qualifying and the 2024 Asian Cup, the Socceroos conceded just ten goals in 21 matches, and will defend with a compact back five in a low block. Thus, they will not be easy to score goals against, but the U.S. have to view their clash at Lumen Field as very winnable.
Australia at the 2026 World Cup: Key facts
- FIFA World Ranking: 27.
- Total World Cup qualifications: 7.
- World Cup best performance: Round of 16 - 2006 & 2022.
- Recent wins: 1-0 & 3-1 vs New Zealand, 1-0 vs Canada, 1-0 vs Cameroon & 5-1 vs Curaçao.
- Recent loses: 2-1 vs USA, 1-0 vs Venezuela & 3-0 vs Colombia.
2) Paraguay - A dangerous team capable of causing problems
The United States' eagerly anticipated World Cup opener will see them take on Paraguay in LA. When the pair clashed in Pennsylvania last November, Gio Reyna's header broke the deadlock early, before Folarin Balogun poked home the winner at Subaru Park.
Los Guaraníes have qualified for a ninth World Cup overall, but a first since 2010, finishing sixth in the CONMEBOL table, losing only four of 18 games. Gustavo Alfaro's team beat both Brazil and Argentina in Asunción, losing only one of 12 competitive fixtures since Copa América, so will be no pushovers.
La Albirroja's attacking talisman is a familiar face to American viewers Miguel Almirón, part of a strong MLS contingent that also includes Andrés Cubas of Vancouver. Their stars are Diego Gómez, once of Inter Miami, and Julio Enciso, albeit no squad member is into double figures for goals.
So, Paraguay are another decent side who will be difficult to score goals against, but lack many elite-level difference makers, hence why they represent winnable opposition for the U.S. for sure.
Paraguay at the 2026 World Cup: Key facts
- FIFA World Ranking: 40.
- Total World Cup qualifications: 9.
- World Cup best performance: Quarter-finals 2010.
- Recent wins: 2-1 vs Mexico & 1-0 vs Greece.
- Recent defeats: 2-0 vs Korea Republic, 2-1 vs USA & 2-1 vs Morocco.
1. Türkiye - The toughest opponent in the group
When the draw was made, it was UEFA Path C winner who completed the quartet and, as most forecast, that turned out to be Türkiye. In March's European play-offs, they won both ties 1-0; Ferdi Kadıoğlu the only scorer against Romania in İstanbul, before Kerem Aktürkoğlu was the match-winner as they ousted Kosovo in Priština.
Thus, Türkiye will feature at only a third World Cup, exiting early in 1954, but making it all the way to the semi-finals in 2002, dumping out co-hosts Japan and Senegal, before defeat to Brazil in Saitama. Despite any subsequent recent World Cup pedigree, the Crescent-Stars cannot be overlooked.
Under Vincenzo Montella, they reached the quarter-finals at the most-recent Euros. Two summers ago, Türkiye beat Georgia and Czechia in the group stage and ousted Austria from the round of 16, before a narrow 2-1 defeat against Netherlands in Berlin. Since then, they've gained promotion to Nations League A for the first time ever and, as outlined, qualified for a first World Cup in 24 years, notably holding Spain to a 2-2 draw in Seville last November.
In less good news for Turkish fans, they are poised to be without two world class stars this summer, namely captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Real Madrid winger Arda Güler due to injury. Nevertheless, they do still boast Kenan Yıldız, who has five international goals to his name, as well as netting 23 times across the last two seasons for Juventus.
Last June, despite Jack McGlynn's first minute curler, Türkiye fought back to beat USA 2-1 in Connecticut, thanks to quick-fire goals from Güler and then Aktürkoğlu. Thus, even without two key players, before a ball is kicked, most make Türkiye favourites to top this section.
Türkiye at the 2026 World Cup: Key facts
- FIFA World Ranking: 22.
- Total World Cup qualifications: 3
- World Cup best performance: Semi-finals 2002.
- Recent wins: 6-1 & 2-0 vs Bulgaria, 3-2 & 4-1 vs Georgia, 1-0 vs Romania & 1-0 vs Kosovo.
- Recent defeats: 1-0 vs Mexico & 6-0 vs Spain.
Were the U.S. to replicate their friendly results against these three teams, wins over Paraguay and Australia as well as a narrow defeat to Türkiye, most would probably settle for that. In a 48-team tournament, three points and a zero or positive goal difference is usually enough to see a team progress, but Pochettino's team surely have to be aiming for a top two finish.
The Group D winners will face a third-place finisher from Group B,E,F, I or J in the San Francisco Bay Area on 1 July, with the runners-up meeting the runners-up from Group G at AT&T Stadium two days later. If the United States harbour serious aspirations of making a deep run, they will be targeting at least two wins out of three, which is very much achievable. The fact that their toughest opponent Türkiye is the finall fixture could help, because hopefully the pressure is off by then.
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