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Germany might just be a bit more beatable than USMNT fans might think

Can the USA upset the odds and beat Germany on Saturday?
Germany v United States - International Friendly
Germany v United States - International Friendly | Howard Smith/ISI Photos/USSF/GettyImages

World Cup send-off friendlies do not come much more high-profile than this. On Saturday afternoon, the United States will take on Germany at Soldier Field in Chicago. This is the final opportunity for Mauricio Pochettino to experiment and tinker, before the Stars and Stripes get down to serious business against Paraguay at SoFI Stadium on Friday evening.

Given that Germany are four-times World Cup winners, appearing in eight finals, the most of any nation, they arrive in Illinois with serious pedigree. However, there are reasons to believe that die Mannschaft might be more beatable than casuals USMNT fans may realise.

Well, firstly, Germany's recent World Cup record is horrendous. Since adding a fourth star to their crest in Rio de Janeiro 12 years ago, die Nationalelf have won only two of six World Cup fixtures, catastrophically crashing out in the group stages both times. Prior to 2018, Germany had only ever fallen at the first hurdle once, ousted by Switzerland in a replay in Paris all the way back in 1938. Now though, they're still rueing after back-to-back group phase eliminations.

However, since Qatar, this team are on an upward trajectory. Julian Nagelsmann's first game in charge was a 3-1 win over the U.S. in Connecticut in October 2023, thanks to goals from İlkay Gündoğan, Niclas Füllkrug and then Jamal Musiala. Subsequently, Germany have reached the Euro quarter-finals and the UEFA Nations League semi-finals, both on home soil, ousted by Spain and Portugal.

Last September, they began World Cup qualification with a shock defeat, beaten 2-0 by Slovakia at Národný futbalový štadión in Bratislava. This is only Germany's fourth loss ever in World Cup qualifying, across 88 matches, and a very first away from home.

Complete list of World Cup qualifiers Germany have lost

  • 16 October 1985. Germany 0-1 Portugal. Neckarstadion, Stuttgart.
  • 1 September 2001. Germany 1-5 England. Olympiapark München.
  • 31 March 2021. Germany 1-2 North Macedonia. MSV-Arena, Duisburg (behind-closed-doors).
  • 4 September 2025. Slovakia 2-0 Germay. Národný futbalový Å¡tadión, Bratislava.

Nevertheless, after that, Nagelsmann's team responded with five straight wins in Group A, cementing their spot in North American by hammering Slovakia 6-0 in Leipzig. Having also beaten Switzerland, Ghana and now Finland in 2026 friendlies, the latter a 4-0 success last Sunday, that is now eight straight wins for Germany, scoring 26 goals and conceding five.

Having said all of that, die Nationalelf are not at the peak of their powers. They are without Serge Gnabry due to injury, while 40 year old Manuel Neuer has been recalled to the squad, having initially retired after the last Euros. A penny for the thoughts of Oliver Baumann, who was an ever-present between the posts during qualification, but has now been usurped in the pecking order.

Speaking of aging players, key figures including Antonio Rüdiger, Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka and Leroy Sané are now in their 30s, with the exception of Kimmich all on the way down. They do have Jamal Musiala, Florian Wirtz and teenaged star Lennart Karl coming through, but this German team is going through something of a generational transition. Nathaniel Brown of Eintracht Frankfurt has an American father, so will he be booed against the side he snubbed?

Once the World Cup commences, it's hard to know how well Germany will do. They are not one of the outright favourites, which is certainly not usually the case, but they have the talent to compete with anyone. Equally, amid uncertainty over player availability and what the first-choice XI should be, perhaps Pochettino's more settled U.S. side could spring a surprise at Solider Field.

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